Our Yearly Blog Post! (aka, Fantasy Football 2013)

You know what was fun? That time before working full time and going to law school full time consumed my life and I had time to do things like write a blog. Remember those days? Pepperidge Farms remembers.

Anywho.

Mike and I have once again drafted a joint Sin Bin fantasy football team to agonize and get frustrated over. We're going to break down our picks round by round, with the best and worst case scenarios for both. So without further ado (unless you consider the jump "ado") we present to you our team....

Stafford Infection. 


First Round: Ray Rice

What Could Go Right:
What could go right? It's RAY RICE. This guy eats defenders for breakfast and shits out fantasy points like it's no big thing. Last year, Rice had 1,621 all purpose yards, 61 receptions, and 10 touchdowns. It was the fifth straight year he surpassed 1,100 rushing yards, and finished as a top-5 PPR RB. The Ravens resigned Vonta Leach, who is about as good as any fullback in football. Might not seem like a big deal, but in front of every great RB is a great fullback throwing a key block. The Ravens also lost everyone and their mother on this team, be it via trade (Anquan Boldin) retirement (long time center Matt Birk), injury (Dennis Pitta) or free agency (their entire defense). Joe Flacco's options are: Throw the ball to Torrey Smith, throw the ball to Ray Rice, hand the ball off to Ray Rice. That's about it, and I like those odds.

It should also be noted that at this point, Ray Rice is so good that people are expecting more. "Oh, you only rushed for 140 yards and caught a 60 yard TD pass? Yawn." Ray Rice might actually be underrated, which is completely mind boggling.

Rice ended the 2012 season with 1,621 all-purpose yards, 61 receptions, and ten touchdowns. It was Rice's fourth consecutive season surpassing 1,100 rushing yards, and he finished as a top-5 PPR running back
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sbnation/SBNation_20130826_Fantasy_football_draft_strategy_2013__Why_Ray_Rice_should_be_considered_a_top_3_PPR_running_back.html#xcgiWr1VEfGU7CKd.99

Rice ended the 2012 season with 1,621 all-purpose yards, 61 receptions, and ten touchdowns. It was Rice's fourth consecutive season surpassing 1,100 rushing yards, and he finished as a top-5 PPR running back
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sbnation/SBNation_20130826_Fantasy_football_draft_strategy_2013__Why_Ray_Rice_should_be_considered_a_top_3_PPR_running_back.html#xcgiWr1VEfGU7CKd.99

Rice ended the 2012 season with 1,621 all-purpose yards, 61 receptions, and ten touchdowns. It was Rice's fourth consecutive season surpassing 1,100 rushing yards, and he finished as a top-5 PPR running back
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sbnation/SBNation_20130826_Fantasy_football_draft_strategy_2013__Why_Ray_Rice_should_be_considered_a_top_3_PPR_running_back.html#xcgiWr1VEfGU7CKd.99

Rice ended the 2012 season with 1,621 all-purpose yards, 61 receptions, and ten touchdowns. It was Rice's fourth consecutive season surpassing 1,100 rushing yards, and he finished as a top-5 PPR running back
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sbnation/SBNation_20130826_Fantasy_football_draft_strategy_2013__Why_Ray_Rice_should_be_considered_a_top_3_PPR_running_back.html#xcgiWr1VEfGU7CKd.99

Rice ended the 2012 season with 1,621 all-purpose yards, 61 receptions, and ten touchdowns. It was Rice's fourth consecutive season surpassing 1,100 rushing yards, and he finished as a top-5 PPR running back
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sbnation/SBNation_20130826_Fantasy_football_draft_strategy_2013__Why_Ray_Rice_should_be_considered_a_top_3_PPR_running_back.html#xcgiWr1VEfGU7CKd.99

Rice ended the 2012 season with 1,621 all-purpose yards, 61 receptions, and ten touchdowns. It was Rice's fourth consecutive season surpassing 1,100 rushing yards, and he finished as a top-5 PPR running back
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sbnation/SBNation_20130826_Fantasy_football_draft_strategy_2013__Why_Ray_Rice_should_be_considered_a_top_3_PPR_running_back.html#xcgiWr1VEfGU7CKd.99

Oh yeah: He also pretty much single handedly avoided the entire city of San Diego and saved the Ravens season.

What Could Go Wrong:

This child later took Ray's lunch money.

Look at that photo. When he stands up, Ray Rice will be about 2 feet taller than that child. Ray is going to put that baby on his shoulders, drape an oversized rain coat over them both, and try and sneak into an R rated movie. Ray Rice is TINY. Like, "can't get on half the rides at Six Flags" tiny. Opposing scout teams slap a helmet on one of those orange end zone pylons, put it on a skate board, and kick it down field to emulate Ray Rice in practice. Ray Rice is listed as 5'8 by the Ravens. That means that he's really about 5'6. The NFL is such a physical sport than any player can get seriously injured on any play. That risk gets magnified when your last 3 Halloween costumes have been an Oompa Loompa, R2-D2, and a fetus.

There's also the fact that as I mentioned above, Ray Rice is basically the only player worth a damn in this offense. Which is great because he should get plenty of looks, but not so great when literally every player on the other team knows you're getting the ball 95% of the time. His versatility should keep the other team honest, which it's going to have to because god knows Torrey Smith won't.

But my biggest concern? It's not all the fumbles he had in the playoffs. It's not the fact that Bernard Pierce could vulture some of his TDs (which he will) or playing time (which he won't). It's that as a Rutgers alum, Ray Rice is due for a case of Super Gonnorsyphaherpes to rear its ugly head at any moment.

Second Round: Matt Forte

What Could Go Right:
Like Ray Rice, Matt Forte has the ability to catch the ball out of the back field. And like Ray Rice, the offensive options besides Forte are....pretty offensive. You have Brandon Marshall, who is legit. After that it's a steaming pile of mediocrity. Alshon Jeffrey could be a fantasy sleeper, as the best non-Marshall receiver on this team (we hope---more on that in a bit). Joe Anderson? Earl Bennett? Martellus Bennett? Is this finally the year Devin Hester stops being just an overrated kick returner? (By the way, did you know Devin Hester is 30? It seems like just yesterday Dante Hall Hester broke into the league). Forte is gonna get a lot of touches on offense, and he will produce. Last year Forte had 1,094 rushing yards, and 340 receiving yards. Forte's had just 44 catches last year (a career low), yet his receiving yards were still good enough for 9th best from a RB in the league, and that included missing a game due to injury.

What Could Go Wrong:

Tee-hee.

It's not necessarily that Forte is "bad" at scoring touchdowns, he just really isn't given the opportunity. Michael Bush's sole purpose on the Bears is to be a dick punch to all of Forte's fantasy owners and vulture any and all touchdowns. This is who is going to get the ball when the Bears are inside the 5 yard line (in order): 1) Michael Bush 2) Brandon Marshall 3) Martellus Bennet 4) Jay Cutler run 5) Josh McCown 6) Mike Ditka 7) Matt Forte. He's scored just 10 times in the last two season combined (Bush has 13 in that same span). Those 340 receiving yards I mentioned are much less impressive when you realize it ranks him behind fantasy juggernauts Ronnie Brown, Joique Bell, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Danny Woodhead. And of the 44 catches, just one resulted in a touchdown. 

Last year Matt Forte had so many letters after his name that he basically went to 8 medical schools, and 4 law schools. Seriously, he should just change his name to "Day to Day Forte." He's the guy that you have to push off Sunday plans to update your roster at 1:04 PM just to make sure he's in the game.

Third Round: Jimmy Graham

What Could Go Right:
A top flight fantasy TE who ISN'T awaiting murder charges or playing with one shoulder? Sign me up! What was once a thin position to begin with (Graham, Gronk, Murdernandez) is now down to one player. Sure you'll have some guys who can put up a few points here or there, but the gap between Graham and the next best TE is a shade smaller than the Grand Canyon. He also happens to have one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the NFL throwing him the ball, in an offense that is going to average about 40 points a game, playing with a defense that is going to allow just about as many. Also, the running backs blow in New Orleans. And Graham is pretty much the Saints best receiver. My point is this: Graham is going to put up a butt load of points, and odds are whatever team we're going against isn't going to get the same production from that spot.

Last year, Graham led the Saints in receptions with 85. He also had 982 yards and 9 touchdowns, which are pretty damn good for a tight end. He also happened to be playing with a wrist injury and missed a game with a sprained ankle. You have to figure that a healthy Graham would have put up numbers similar to 2011, when he caught 99 passes for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns. Oh, and now that Sean Payton isn't going around spray painting bullseyes on Matt Ryan and Cam Newton's helmets, he can call the plays full time again.

What Could Go Wrong:

Kyle Broflovski, the Miami years.

I thought this had to be a joke. A Panthers fan's photoshop, or rookie hazing. But more research:

I'd shave my head, too.

We drafted a ginger. A black (?) ginger. Goddamit. 

Fourth Round: Randall Cobb

What Could Go Right:

James Jones. Jordy Nelson. Randall Cobb. With the departure of Greg Jennings, one of those guys is going to have a chance to become the favorite target for the best QB in football, and my money's on Cobb. He's a super versatile player who is going to see most of his time out of the slot, and he has a chance to make a an impact a la Victor Cruz.

He had 80 catches for 954 yards last year and 8 touchdowns. He also had 2 runs for more than 20 yards, which happens to be approximately 2 more than Shonn Greene had in his entire Jets career. He also played a bit of quarterback at Kentucky. He's basically like Percy Harvin, only without the fake headaches, doesn't have the best RB in the game on his team to bogart touches, and he has a quarterback who can throw the ball more than 7 yards.

What Could Go Wrong:

Sweet pegs, bro.

Having a WR on your fantasy team in an Aaron Rodgers offense is kinda like having disco records in December, 1979. One week they're worth something, and the next week they're utterly useless and have cocaine residue on them. It's entirely possible that there will be a week where Cobb has 14 points, and then find himself as Rodgers' third option behind Jones and Nelson. With the supposed extra emphasis on the run game now (see below), it's possible that the TD opportunities for the Packers receivers will be less abundant than in the past. 

Fifth Round: Eddie Lacy

What Could Go Right:

Eddie Lacy is a beast. There is no two ways about it. I'm pretty sure he spent the time after the National Championship game and before the Draft picking chunks of Leprechaun out of his cleats. In that game against Notre Dame, he ran the ball 20 times for 140 yards and a touchdown. In the SEC title game, he ran for 181 yards on 20 carries with 2 touchdowns. That's an average of 7 and 9.1 yards per carry, for those of you who went to Notre Dame. On the season, Lacy rushed for 1,322 yards and 17 touchdowns, despite splitting time with T.J. Yeldon (who also ran for over 1,000 yards). If they leaned on Lacy a little more (204 carries to Yeldon's 175) his stats would have been even more insane. The kid can run, plain and simple. 

What Could Go Wrong:

I want my baby back, baby back ribs.

Hold on, BJ Raji put a different jersey on as a joke, right? WAIT, YOU MEAN THAT'S MY FLEX STARTER?? Holy crap, Lacy is fat. Pretty sure Lacy won the RB competition in training camp by eating the other two backs they brought in. Seriously, now that DuJuan Harris has been put on the IR with an "injury" (nom nom nom), Lacy is going to be the go to back. That's assuming, of course, that Aaron Rodgers decides he needs a running back at all.

Honestly, when was the last time Green Bay had a running back worth a damn? Ahman Green was their last back to make the Pro Bowl (2004) and Ryan Grant was the last one to crack 1,000 yards (2009). Aaron Rodgers has officially forgotten how to run the football. At some point, a handoff to Lacy is going to be called, and instead Rodgers is turn around and throw the ball 45 yards backwards.

I'd also point out that outside of Doug Martin, the number of running backs who have been successful in their first season is approximately -347. It just isn't likely.

Fat RB+Rookie RB+QB who throws 99% of the time=Fantasy success!

Round 6: Hakeem Nicks

What Could Go Right:
I don't care what you want to say about Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks is the number one receiver in this offense. With his athletic ability and size (seriously, Google his hand size), he is the number one target for Eli Manning if he can stay healthy. The fact that Cruz is more banged up than Nicks at this point means that Nicks should be getting even more targets early on. He battled through injuries all of last season, and if he can stay healthy he can be a top 10 receiver. Don't forget, he had 11 TDs in 2010, tied for 4th in the league.

What Could Go Wrong:

Get used to this sight.

Hakeem Nicks has spent more time on a bike these last two years than Lance Armstrong, and probably more time with needles in him too. Every fantasy preview you read about Nicks always qualifies the review with "if he can stay healthy" and "if he can avoid injury" which is usually followed with "which he won't." Ruben Randle's fantasy stock is skyrocketing for the sole reason that nobody thinks that Nicks is going to make it through the season unscathed. 

Oh, and before you're impressed with that "11 touchdowns, tied for 4th in the league" stat, he was tied with  Mike Williams and Brandon Lloyd. Must not have been a great year for defensive backs. 

Round 7: Antonio Brown

What Could Go Right:

With Mike Wallace's departure for the greener pastures of Miami (literally greener; money is the only reason anyone would play for the Dolphins) Antonio Brown becomes the #1 WR in the Pittsburgh offense. While they are completely different kinds of receivers, there is a very strong chance that Brown shines outside of Wallace's shadow. Todd Haley likes to run a short passing offense, and Brown excels getting yards after the catch. Finally, Heath Miller is already having health issues. Miller and Wallace combined for 36 red zone targets and 16 touchdowns last season. The Rapist is going to have to throw the ball to someone in the red zone, and Brown has a good chance to be that guy. Brown also was dealing with a high ankle sprain for most of the season last year, which hopefully led to his disappointing numbers. 

What Could Go Wrong:

What's Spanish for "mediocre?" 

Losing Wallace might not be a good thing for Brown's fantasy stock. A guy like Brown really needs someone to stretch the field to open things up for him, and it's unclear if any of the other wide receivers on the Steelers can do that. Emmanuel Sanders will get the first chance to replace Brown (who is replacing Wallace...INCEPTION), and they also have Jericho Cotchery and rookie Markus Wheaton. Brown had a breakout season two years ago, but last year was an utter disappointment (especially for his fantasy owners, like this guy). We'll see if the down year was due to injury, or a regression to the mean. 

Round 8: Tavon Austin

What Could Go Right:

6 yards. That's all that stood between Austin and the FBS record for most all purpose yards in a game. Against Oklahoma last season, Austin ran the ball 21 times for 344 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also caught 4 passes for 82 yards, and had 146 kick return yards. For those keeping track, that's 572 all purpose yards. Austin can line up anywhere on the field, and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. His skill set led the Rams to take him with the 8th overall pick, and he figures to be a big part of the Rams offense. Like the comparison I made with Randal Cobb, he should be a less-pansified Percy Harvin. 

What Could Go Wrong:

Daydreaming about Geno Smith and college defenses. 

What could go wrong? He's got Sam Bradford throwing him the ball, that's what could go wrong. He's also playing in the NFC West, meaning he'll be facing Seattle and San Francisco twice a year. Which means there's a good chance his 5'9 frame will be cut into separate 3 foot pieces. 

Round 9: Stevie Johnson

What Could Go Right:

Ryan Fitzpatrick. Trent Edwards. Bryan Brohm. That's who Stevie Johnson has had throwing him the ball for the past 3 seasons, and he's still managed to put up at least 1,000 yards in each of those three seasons. Johnson has been consistent, even if the identity of his quarterback hasn't been.

What Could Go Wrong:

The barber was going to finish the design, but he dropped the clippers and blamed God instead.

He plays in Buffalo, aka the Bermuda Triangle of the NFL. People from Buffalo tell you that their wings taste different up there, but that might just be because they're tasting the cold steel of the gun they perpetually have resting in their mouth. Seriously, HOW DO YOU LOSE FOUR STRAIGHT SUPERBOWLS?? (Oh right. Norwood). Stevie Johnson has already had one QB end his career by slipping on a bathmat this season. That's right; a professional athlete who has trained his whole life and teams have invested millions of dollars in was undone by a piece of rubber that cost 5 cents to make in Thailand. Only in Buffalo. He's one EJ Manuel trip to Bed, Bath and Beyond from having Jeff Tuel throwing him the football. 

Round 10: Mark Ingram

What Could Go Right: The Saints have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and explosive diarrhea for defense. Seriously, their games are going to average an over/under of approximately 150. Everyone has been saying that Ingram has been running the ball well in the preseason and training camp, and he could be poised for a breakout year.

What Could Go Wrong:

I'd cry too if Drew Brees was my QB and I wasn't Jimmy Graham.

Drew Brees is one of the top 2 fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL. You know how he got that way? BY NOT HANDING OFF THE FOOTBALL. This is the Saints playbook: Pass on first down, Pass on second down, Pass on third down, Pass on fourth down. If they could pass on defense, they would.

Go ahead, Google Image "Mark Ingram." (Here, I did it for you. You're welcome.). Ingram's HIGH SCHOOL picture comes up before a picture of him in a Saints uniform. He's only rushed for 1,087 yards in his career, a number I'm pretty sure Adrian Peterson will surpass by week 4. Some blame that on an overcrowded (and mediocre) Saints backfield, and even with the "loss" of Chris Ivory the Saints still have about 8 RBs on their team. And when you're going to split 6 carries among those 8 guys, the pickins are mighty slim for fantasy points.

Round 11: Michael Vick

What Could Go Right: Did you see Chip Kelly's offense at Oregon? It was basically built for Michael Vick. They run a lot of plays, and put up a lot of points. Also, he plays in the same division as the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins, none of whom are particularly amazing at playing defense. Vick used to burn the Giants in the Fat Angry Walrus' offense scheme, what do you think he's going to do this time around? 

What Could Go Wrong:

Downward facing dog?

Chip is going to learn that playing against NFL defenses is a lot different than playing Tennessee-Chattanooga and Eastern Michigan (well, unless you're playing the Browns). You try and be too cute and your quarterback is going to be removing bits of linebacker helmet from his spleen for a month. Vick wears the number 7, which is appropriate because he's starting to get there with concussions. He's one concussion away from getting his next one free. DeShawn Jackson stopped playing football 2 seasons ago...seriously, when he had the "walk off" punt return against the Giants he might as well have pulled a Forrest Gump and ran off the field and out of the stadium.

Also, he's an asshole and I hate the fact that I waited this long to take a quarterback and got stuck with him.

Round 12: Alshon Jeffery

What Could Go Right:

One of these days, someone is going to emerge as the WR2 opposite Brandon Marshall. It wasn't Hester or Knox, so maybe it will be Jeffery. He has also had a "phenomenal" preseason (doesn't everyone though?). And like I said, Cutler has to throw the ball to someone other than Marshall, right?

What Could Go Wrong

That orange blocker is going to get more targets.

Actually no, he doesn't. Cutler is going to throw the ball to Marshall, hand it off to Forte, and throw the ball to Bennett (maybe). Jeffery is an afterthought to Cutler, ranking slightly behind NASCAR, Doritos Locos Tacos, and gambling.

Round 13: Bengals D/ST

What Could Go Right: AJ Green might get all the attention on this team, but the Bengals actually have a pretty solid defense. Geno Atkins is studly at DT, racking up 12.5 sacks en route to a Pro Bowl appearance. Michael Johnson had 11.5 sacks, meaning the Bengals are getting to the other team's quarterback. They also added James Harrison who is usually either sacking the quarterback, or getting suspended for attempted murder. They also face offenses that were in the bottom half of the league last year in 12 of their games, and face quarterbacks (Rodgers, Flacco, Rivers, Cutler, and Luck) who get sacked A LOT.

What Could Go Wrong:

Found in OchoCinco's basement.

Did you see that "list of sackable quarterbacks" I posted above? I could also call it "list of quarterbacks who can throw the ball for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns." As good as the Bengals are up front, they don't really have any standout defensive backs.

Round 14: Josh Freeman

What Could Go Right: He's in a walk year, which is supposed to make players play better or something. He can run the ball, and has Vincent Jackson to throw to. With Doug Martin in the backfield, defenses won't be able to cheat as much as they have in the past.

What Could Go Wrong:

Thank you, ESPN the Magazine.

A shitty player in his walk year is still a shitty player. And for every "nerd turns superman" case where a shitty player becomes sneakily less shitty while playing for a contract, you have 100 cases where those shitty players play even shittier because their fans (and the media) say "I can't wait until the season is over and we can replace this shitty player."

Guess which one Freeman is going to be? And we drafted him. Shit.

Round 15: Justin Blackmon

What Could Go Right: Blackmon has the skills to be a top fantasy receiver. He's missing a portion of the season due to a suspension, but at this point in the draft he'll be a "bury and see" guy. No harm in taking a flier on him here.

What Could Go Wrong:

I'd do anything not to wear the Jaguars' new helmets too.

Well, there's always the possibility that he could go back to jail. There's also the possibility that Blaine Gabbert will still be the quarterback when he returns. I'm not sure which scenario would hurt his fantasy stock more.

Round 16: Josh Brown

What Could Go Right:

For all the hooplah about their offense, the Giants are actually pretty terrible inside the red zone. Unless they're scoring on a 45 yard bomb to Victor Cruz, odds are the drive will still inside the 20. Add in the fact that they no longer have a goal line back, and it should add up to a lot of chances for Josh Brown.

What Could Go Wrong:

He was cut by the Jets. That should say it all.